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Civitas Poll of 500 Likely Republicans Shows Upcoming GOP Primary a Virtual Toss-up in NC

A new Civitas poll shows the upcoming GOP primary is a virtual toss-up in North Carolina.

The poll asked likely Republican primary election voters who their current choice is among the Republican presidential hopefuls, and 27 percent said businessman Donald Trump, while 23 percent said Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. That puts them within the poll’s margin of error.

Cruz and Trump also polled far ahead of the other candidates on the March 15 ballot. Following was the ballot’s “no preference” option at 11 percent. Next were Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 10 percent and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 7 percent, with no other candidate garnering more than 4 percent of the responses.

The exact text of the relevant question follows. (Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.)

If the Republican Primary for President were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between? (READ IN ORDER)


2%       Mike Huckabee
2%       John Kasich
2%       Rand Paul
10%     Marco Rubio
1%       Rick Santorum
27%     Donald Trump
4%       Jeb Bush
7%       Ben Carson
4%       Chris Christie
23%     Ted Cruz
2%       Carly Fiorina
—          Jim Gilmore
11%     Or would you say you have No Preference
2%       Other (Specify)
2%       Refused
The poll surveyed 500 likely Republican voters. The margin of error is plus/minus 4.38 percent. The survey was taken January 18-19, 2016.

Civitas President Francis De Luca will be available for interviews to discuss the poll and issues of the day. To arrange an interview, email Demi Dowdy atdemi.dowdy@nccivitas.org or call 919.834.2099.

Founded in 2005, the Civitas Institute is a Raleigh, NC-based, 501(c)(3) nonprofit policy organization committed to creating a North Carolina whose citizens enjoy liberty and prosperity derived from limited government, personal responsibility and civic engagement. Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters.