Civitas Poll: Voters Split on President Trump Impeachment; Governor Cooper’s Approval Continues to Drop

Published Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 11:45 am

The latest statewide Civitas Poll finds North Carolinians are split on support for an impeachment inquiry by the U.S. House of Representatives. Five hundred likely voters were asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. House of Representatives starting an impeachment inquiry against President Trump?”
 
46%    Approve
48%    Disapprove
6%      Unsure/Refused
 
This question comes on the tails of a phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk wherein speculation has been made that the President engaged in quid pro quo, promising U.S. aid dollars in exchange for a politically-motivated investigation into former Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s son, Hunter.
 
Skepticism about such an inquiry is higher in North Carolina than it is nationally, where the RealClearPolitics’ average finds 50.9 percent support for an inquiry and 43.3 percent oppose it. Unaffiliated voters–the state’s fastest-growing voting bloc–are almost evenly split on this issue, with 47 percent approving of an inquiry and 46 percent in opposition. 
 
“North Carolina’s opposition to the impeachment inquiry is just a bit above the national average, however that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone,” said Civitas Institute President Donald Bryson. “Everyone needs to keep in mind how evenly split this question is and understand that it is not a decided question in the Tar Heel State. We should expect it to be a central campaign focus in early 2020.”
 
Those surveyed were also given several gubernatorial matchups between Governor Roy Cooper and former Governor Pat McCrory, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, and state Representative Holly Grange. Both Forest and Grange have announced their candidacy for governor. Although still leading among each of the three Republicans, Governor Cooper’s support has fallen since August, when this question was last asked.
 
If the 2020 election for Governor of North Carolina were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for? 
 

Cooper v. Forest Cooper v. McCrory Cooper v. Grange
Cooper             46% Cooper               44% Cooper               46%
Forest               36% McCrory             38% Grange               27%
Undecided       19% Undecided         18% Undecided         27%

 
Young voters (18-34) are among the strongest supporters of Governor Cooper’s re-election, while all three Republicans performed best among those ages 45 to 64 years old. 
 
Governor Cooper’s job approval has slowly declined over the past seven months. Today, 51 percent approve of the governor’s job performance. In the March 2019 Civitas Poll, 58 percent of likely voters approved.
 
Bryson continued, “If I am in the Cooper campaign, my immediate concern is the downtick in Governor Cooper’s numbers. The change is not because Republicans are performing better; it is because voters are more unsure of the governor.”

Poll toplines found here.

Complete crosstabs found here.

Methodology: The sample size for the survey is 500 likely voters in North Carolina and the margin of error is +/-4.38% at a 95% confidence interval, meaning that if this survey were repeated, results would not vary from the population by more than 4.38 percentage points 19 times out of 20. Responses were gathered via landline and mobile telephone interviews conducted by live callers at a professional call center. Demographics were adjusted to reflect the population from which the sample was drawn. The survey was conducted October 15 – 17, 2019 by Harper Polling. The total percentages of responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.
 
Founded in 2005, the Civitas Institute is a Raleigh, NC-based, 501(c)(3) nonprofit policy organization that fights to remove barriers to freedom so that all North Carolinians can enjoy a better life. 

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