By Jesse Wood
Now that we’ve given Aspen, the winner of the 40th annual Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk, his or her 15 minutes of fame, here’s a more scientific approach for forecasting the upcoming winter from RaysWeather.com, which recently published its an annual Fearless Forecast.
The summary of the 2017-18 Fearless Forecast:
- 10 to 15 percent less snow than the long-term average overall
- Temperatures about 1 degree above long-term averages (with big swings)
To produce this report, RaysWeather.com owner Ray Russell analyzed El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – as well as 10-year average snow trends in Boone, the North Atlantic Oscillation Wildcard and Arctic ice cover.
Check out the entire Fearless Forecast to see explanations of this report and to see some interesting, related graphs. As the report states and as any meteorologist would agree, readers shouldn’t put “too much stock” in long-range forecasts.
And no, no woolly worm segments were analyzed or beans in jars counted to produce RaysWeather.com’s Fearless Forecast.
Read the entire report here: http://booneweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf