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Toe River Health District Director Warns of Possible Coronavirus Surge This Fall and Winter, But Believes Disease Should Be Less Severe Than the Past Two Years

By Tim Gardner

Whatever you may be doing to transition to the fall and winter, health experts say you may also want to brace yourself for another possible surge of Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases. 

The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic. It was first identified from an outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Attempts to contain it there failed, allowing the virus to spread to other areas of China and later worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on January 30, 2020 and a pandemic on March 11, 2020. As of September, 27 2022, the pandemic has had 615 million cases and 6.53 million confirmed deaths, making it one of the deadliest in history.

Medical experts warn there could potentially be 100 million new infections world-wide and hundreds or thousands more in the High Country this fall and winter.

Tow River Health District Director Diane Creek (Photo Courtesy of Diane Creek).

However, Diane Creek, Director of Toe River Health District (THRD), which governs Avery and Mitchell counties in the North Carolina High Country said compared to the beginning of the pandemic two-and-a-half years ago, any possible surge may not be as severe. Her reasoning is because there currently are much more available protections, such as vaccines, antiviral treatments and immunity from prior infections.

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“The hope is that cases should be less in number and less severe to those infected because we have built up immunity through various means,” Creek shared. “But people are indoors more in the fall and winter because of cooler temperatures. As a result, they are closer in contact with each other, so there could be a surge this fall and winter in our regions.”

Even though Avery and Mitchell counties are very rural and among the smallest in the State of North Carolina in population, they still combine for a fairly large population of 32,521 (17,557 in Avery and 14,964 in Mitchell), according to the 2020 United States Census.

“While the counties are smaller in size and population, we have experienced a lot of COVID cases. One case of COVID is too many, so we will continue to do all to keep fighting the disease,” Creek added.

According to the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS), Avery County has had 5,255 COVID-19 cases and 47 deaths from the disease, while Mitchell County has had 4,369 COVID-19 Cases with 42 deaths.

Avery County includes the townships and communities of Newland, Banner Elk, Elk Park, Ingalls, Linville, Invershield, Pineola, Crossnore, Altamont, Pyati, Hughes, Minneapolis, Roaring Creek, Spear, Plumtree, Cranberry and parts of Beech Mountain and Linville Falls.

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Mitchell County includes the townships and communities of Spruce Pine, Grassy Creek, Bakersville, Minor, Estates, Ledger, Red Hill, Poplar, Pigeon Roost, Glen Ayre, Loafers Glory and Buladean.

Symptoms of COVID-19 are: cough, fever/chills, runny nose, sore throat, nausea, diarrhea, muscle/body aches, headache, “pink eye” or red eyes, fatigue, shortness of breath/difficulty breathing, loss of taste, loss of smell, congestion and ear ache. And it can take long periods of time to recover from the ailment.

Booster uptake, emerging variants, and public behaviors might all affect COVID-19 case rates as the weather keeps getting colder. It’s important to remember that COVID-19 can manifest differently in individuals even if the circulating variants are milder.

“In particular, for people who are older, have chronic conditions and other health issues, COVID continues to be a threat and we must remain vigilant in the fight to combat it and keep as many as possible for getting the disease,” Creek stated.

Although there are more ways to combat COVID-19 because people are getting vaccinated and boosted and treatments are widely available, Creek said it doesn’t mean that additional health precautions should be ignored. People should stay up-to-date on recommended vaccinations and practice other health protocols.

“The key is to get vaccinated if you’ve haven’t and then to get all the most recent authorized and recommended booster shots to prevent severe illness, hospitalization, possible long-lasting health problems or even death caused by the virus. Protecting yourself will also help to decrease any surge,” Creek noted.

The new bivalent boosters are designed to protect against both the original COVID-19 strain and Omicron BA.5, which has been responsible for most of the current cases in America.

Creek recommends taking other precautions, such as getting tested for COVID if you’ve been exposed to another person or other people infected with it, wearing a mask in crowded indoor areas, and washing your hands properly.

Additionally, she advises to assess your own health risks and remain vigilant about transmission rates in your community to decide what safety measures to take.

“If we do see rates rising, this can be an indicator to modify our own behaviors,” Creek said. “Once again, consider masking, using ventilation at social gatherings, and in some instances, avoiding very large indoor gatherings.”

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She added: “We have the resources we need to combat COVID-19 so that it doesn’t manage us. Pfizer and Moderna are two of the best drugs to combat it. And the Novavax vaccine provides another option for a safe, effective and free vaccine. With the BA.5 Coronavirus variant spreading, now is the best time to get vaccinated if you haven’t already. Getting the necessary vaccinations is still the most effective way to combat COVID and all its variants.”

Access to multiple types of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines authorized by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and recommended by the National Center for Disease Control (CDC) provides people more options and flexibility to choose their vaccine.

Most COVID-19 vaccines be given in a two-dose primary series, with a second dose administered between three-to-eight weeks after the first.

For further information about COVID-19 vaccines, testing and treatments, log online to MySpot.nc.gov or call the North Carolina COVID-19 Vaccine Help Center at 1-888-675-4567.

More information about COVID-19, testing and inoculations to combat the disease can also be obtained by calling your local doctor or the local health departments in the TRHD, depending on which of those counties you reside: Avery County Health Department (828)-733-6031 or Mitchell County Health Department (828)-688-2371.